Many in the games industry are convinced that subscription services will dominate the business model for video games in the coming years.
While opinions vary on key factors such as the leading companies, the role of game streaming, and the feasibility of multiple publisher-specific subscription services, the overarching belief is that subscription models will overshadow traditional sales.
Not everyone embraces this vision, especially considering the disruptions in the TV and movie industries caused by a similar shift.
Larian CEO Swen Vincke publicly expressed his reservations about subscription models, asserting that his company will not allow its games to be included in subscription catalogs. Vincke is concerned that subscription dominance could create powerful gatekeepers, limiting the creative freedom of development studios.
Vincke’s perspective highlights a less-discussed aspect of the subscription debate—the impact on development studios and independent publishers. He acknowledges the potential short-term gains but emphasizes the long-term importance of supporting and protecting the direct sales ecosystem.
By avoiding subscription services, Larian aims to maintain a direct connection with consumers, building long-term business value beyond immediate revenue calculations.
While some argue against subscription services from a consumer perspective, Vincke’s stance reflects the concerns of successful developers. Industry figures like Take Two’s Strauss Zelnick and PlayStation’s Jim Ryan also question the viability of subscription models for AAA games.
Interestingly, data suggests that subscription services currently account for only around 10% of video game content spending in the US, with little evidence of cannibalizing revenue from traditional models.
Despite the ongoing discourse, it remains uncertain whether subscription models will indeed dominate the gaming industry. The experiences of other industries, such as TV and movies, offer cautionary examples.
Senior figures expressing concerns about this transition provide a welcome counterbalance to the prevailing notion of inevitability. As the industry navigates the early days of subscription models, it is crucial to consider whether current strategies may impact the future market.
While the concerns of industry leaders may be ahead of the curve, they prompt a necessary exploration of potential risks and long-term consequences in the evolving landscape of video game business models.
