In recent weeks, the focus on Microsoft’s future strategy and its implications for the console hardware business has been incessant, perhaps diverting attention from broader questions about the overall console hardware market.
Currently, the hardware landscape is peculiar, still reeling from the market disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, even though the direct impact, like supply chain disruptions, has subsided.
These disrupted years have disrupted the typical game hardware cycle, resulting in platforms whose public perception and sales don’t align with their actual position in the cycle.
On one side, there’s Nintendo’s Switch—a remarkable device marking a significant resurgence for the company but undeniably approaching the end of its lifecycle. Despite Nintendo’s knack for overcoming technical limitations, the Switch’s capabilities are notably lagging, especially compared to mid-range smartphones.
The Switch’s inability to output 4K is less problematic for a primarily handheld system. However, its performance gap compared to smartphones is increasingly apparent, and Nintendo’s flagship titles have likely reached their peak on this platform.
On the other hand, there are the PS5 and Xbox Series X, high-end consoles that are deep into their lifespans. However, due to pandemic-related shortages, many consumers still perceive them as recent releases despite years having passed since their launch.
The existence of the Xbox Series S, while initially strong in sales, presents challenges for developers as the previous generation fades away. Moreover, it poses questions for Microsoft about maintaining its market position while reorganizing its hardware lineup for the next generation.
Recent rumors provide some clarity to this murky landscape, albeit with uncertainties. One rumor suggests that Nintendo’s successor to the Switch may be delayed until early 2025, extending the Switch’s lifespan. Another rumor hints at Sony’s plans for a PS5 Pro model in 2025, possibly launching alongside GTA 6 to encourage hardware upgrades.
This leaves 2024 without the anticipated major console launch, exacerbating what already appears to be a slow year following the highs of 2023.
The potential for a PS5 Pro raises questions about Sony’s console strategy. Unlike the PS4 Pro, which catered to the rising popularity of 4K TVs, the rationale for a PS5 Pro is less clear. Nevertheless, bridging the gap between graphics and performance modes could prolong the current hardware generation’s lifespan.
However, introducing a mid-cycle upgrade without a clear external driver could set expectations for future hardware cycles, potentially impacting sales.
Ironically, if these rumors materialize, Microsoft could be the only one launching new hardware in 2024, with a redesigned Xbox Series X reportedly in the works. Microsoft’s future strategy in this evolving landscape remains uncertain.
The console hardware market is poised to become more intricate, presenting challenges for both companies and consumers, with 2024 likely to be a relatively quiet period before significant changes ahead.
